ACF Fiorentina — Como 1907: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
24.5%
Home win
ACF Fiorentina
X
26.4%
Draw
W2
49.1%
Away win
Como 1907
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X275.5%
Both teams to score
Yes62.7%
Totals 2.5
Over60.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.9% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 75.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Goal distribution model
ACF Fiorentina × Como 1907
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.2%
0:1
6.3%
0:2
7.5%
0:3
4.6%
0:4
2.2%
0:5
0.8%
1
1:0
3.7%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
5.9%
1:4
2.7%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.6%
2:1
6.6%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
3.8%
2:4
1.8%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
1.5%
3:1
2.8%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
1:29.6%
0:27.5%
2:16.6%
0:16.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
ACF Fiorentina
17th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Napoli 1:1
- 11.09.2026 away Venezia 4:2
- 05.09.2026 home Torino 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Frosinone 0:3
- 24.08.2026 away Roma 0:4
Como 1907
8th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Frosinone 0:2
- 14.09.2026 home Parma 2:1
- 04.09.2026 away Genoa 4:1
- 30.08.2026 away Napoli 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Udinese 1:1
This season: ACF Fiorentina at home vs Como 1907 away
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina · at home | Como 1907 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.57 | 1.61 |
| xG against per match | 1.02 | 1.62 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.67 | 7.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
ACF Fiorentina wins2
Draws0
Como 1907 wins2
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored2/4
Over 2.5 goals2/4
- 14.02.2026 Como 1907 1:2 ACF Fiorentina
- 21.09.2025 ACF Fiorentina 1:2 Como 1907
- 16.02.2025 ACF Fiorentina 0:2 Como 1907
- 24.11.2024 Como 1907 0:2 ACF Fiorentina
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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