Juventus Turin — Lazio Rome: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
57.8%
Home win
Juventus Turin
X
24.5%
Draw
W2
17.7%
Away win
Lazio Rome
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.3%
Both teams to score
Yes52.4%
Totals 2.5
Over52.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.3% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.8% / 22.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Goal distribution model
Juventus Turin × Lazio Rome
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.2%
0:1
4.7%
0:2
2.7%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.3%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
5.0%
1:3
1.6%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.5%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
4.6%
2:3
1.5%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.5%
3:1
6.1%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.0%
4:1
2.8%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.1%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.7%
2:010.5%
1:010.3%
2:19.9%
0:07.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Juventus Turin
7th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sassuolo 2:3
- 06.09.2026 home Milan 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Parma 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Frosinone 1:0
Lazio Rome
3rd place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Venezia 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Milan 2:2
- 07.09.2026 away Udinese 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Genoa 1:0
- 24.08.2026 away Bologna 1:0
This season: Juventus Turin at home vs Lazio Rome away
| Metric | Juventus Turin · at home | Lazio Rome · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.53 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 0.31 | 1.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 5.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Juventus Turin wins2
Draws2
Lazio Rome wins2
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 08.02.2026 Juventus Turin 2:2 Lazio Rome
- 26.10.2025 Lazio Rome 1:0 Juventus Turin
- 10.05.2025 Lazio Rome 1:1 Juventus Turin
- 19.10.2024 Juventus Turin 1:0 Lazio Rome
- 30.03.2024 Lazio Rome 1:0 Juventus Turin
- 16.09.2023 Juventus Turin 3:1 Lazio Rome
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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