AS Roma — Genoa CFC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
71.6%
Home win
AS Roma
X
18.6%
Draw
W2
9.9%
Away win
Genoa CFC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X90.1%
Both teams to score
No52.2%
Totals 2.5
Over58.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.1% |
| 12 | 81.4% | |
| X2 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.4% / 41.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.0% / 64.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.0% / 81.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Goal distribution model
AS Roma × Genoa CFC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.5%
0:1
2.9%
0:2
1.3%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.4%
1:1
8.9%
1:2
3.1%
1:3
0.8%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
12.6%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
3.5%
2:3
0.9%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
9.6%
3:1
7.2%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
5.5%
4:1
4.1%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.5%
5:1
1.9%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.6%
1:010.4%
3:09.6%
2:19.4%
1:18.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
AS Roma
1st place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Inter 2:2
- 14.09.2026 away Torino 2:0
- 05.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Lecce 4:0
- 24.08.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
Genoa CFC
19th place · 1 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Parma 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Frosinone 1:1
- 04.09.2026 home Como 1:4
- 30.08.2026 away Lazio 0:1
- 22.08.2026 home Napoli 0:2
This season: AS Roma at home vs Genoa CFC away
| Metric | AS Roma · at home | Genoa CFC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.49 | 0.64 |
| xG against per match | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.67 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
AS Roma wins3
Draws1
Genoa CFC wins2
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 08.03.2026 Genoa CFC 2:1 AS Roma
- 29.12.2025 AS Roma 3:1 Genoa CFC
- 17.01.2025 AS Roma 3:1 Genoa CFC
- 15.09.2024 Genoa CFC 1:1 AS Roma
- 19.05.2024 AS Roma 1:0 Genoa CFC
- 28.09.2023 Genoa CFC 4:1 AS Roma
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.50 → now 4.75 |
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