Bologna FC — Inter Milano: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
16.1%
Home win
Bologna FC
X
21.4%
Draw
W2
62.5%
Away win
Inter Milano
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X283.9%
Both teams to score
Yes56.3%
Totals 2.5
Over60.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 37.5% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 83.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.1% / 61.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Goal distribution model
Bologna FC × Inter Milano
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.1%
0:1
8.6%
0:2
9.9%
0:3
7.0%
0:4
3.7%
0:5
1.6%
1
1:0
3.7%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
7.0%
1:4
3.7%
1:5
1.6%
2
2:0
2.2%
2:1
4.7%
2:2
5.0%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.9%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
0.7%
3:1
1.6%
3:2
1.6%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.4%
4:2
0.4%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.0%
0:29.9%
1:29.9%
0:18.6%
0:37.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Bologna FC
18th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Torino 1:1
- 13.09.2026 away Napoli 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:2
- 31.08.2026 away Atalanta 0:1
- 24.08.2026 home Lazio 0:1
Inter Milano
2nd place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Roma 2:2
- 14.09.2026 home Udinese 5:3
- 05.09.2026 home Napoli 3:2
- 30.08.2026 away Cagliari 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Monza 4:1
This season: Bologna FC at home vs Inter Milano away
| Metric | Bologna FC · at home | Inter Milano · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.53 | 3.14 |
| xG against per match | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Bologna FC wins1
Draws3
Inter Milano wins2
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 23.05.2026 Bologna FC 3:3 Inter Milano
- 04.01.2026 Inter Milano 3:1 Bologna FC
- 20.04.2025 Bologna FC 1:0 Inter Milano
- 15.01.2025 Inter Milano 2:2 Bologna FC
- 09.03.2024 Bologna FC 0:1 Inter Milano
- 07.10.2023 Inter Milano 2:2 Bologna FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.75 → now 5.50 |
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 1.65 → now 1.55 |
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