Tools · Risk management
Betting ROI calculator
Calculate the hit rate needed to break even and see how a flat-stake series changes under different assumptions.
Expected ROI
Flat-stake series
Return on turnoverStake × odds
+8.0%
Your scenario
Inputs and result
All fields are editable. Adjust the values and the result updates instantly.
Expected ROI+8.0%
Profit / loss+80.00
Break-even hit rate55.6%
Edge over break-even+4.4 п.п.
- Total staked
- 1,000.00
- Expected wins
- 60.0
- Projected bankroll
- 1,080.00
Actual history
Settled-prediction simulator
The hit and miss sequence comes from the public oddmind.app record. Test it with a flat stake and your assumed average odds.
Settled269
Hits182
Hit rate—
ROI—
Profit / loss—
Ending bankroll—
Max drawdown—
- Bets placed
- —
- Skipped
- —
- Turnover
- —
- Break-even
- —
- Sample edge
- —
Hypothetical bankroll curve
How to read this: hits and misses are real, but the return is hypothetical. oddmind.app does not yet store an executable bookmaker price at publication time, so you supply the average odds.
Accuracy ≠ return
Why a 68% hit rate is not ROI
Hit rate only measures how many signals matched. Return also depends on the price of each outcome: the same accuracy can produce either a loss or a profit at different odds.
Sensitivity
Three hit-rate scenarios
Compare the base case with a five-percentage-point downside and upside at the same average odds.
Method
How the result is calculated
01 / BREAK-EVEN
Break-even hit rate
1 / odds × 100%02 / RETURN
Expected return
wins × stake × odds03 / ROI
Series ROI
net profit / staked × 100%Important: this is a mathematical scenario, not a promise of returns. It does not account for changing prices, limits, voids or short-run variance.
FAQ
About the ROI calculator
What does the ROI calculator show?
It estimates the mathematical result of a series of equal stakes using the selected hit rate and average decimal odds.
What is the break-even hit rate?
It is the minimum hit rate at which the expected result is zero, calculated as one divided by the decimal odds.
Does a positive expected ROI guarantee profit?
No. It is a mathematical scenario; actual results depend on variance, available odds and the order of outcomes.
Does the calculation include bookmaker margin?
Margin is not deducted separately because its effect is already reflected in the decimal odds entered by the user.
Why does a 68.1% hit rate not mean a 68.1% ROI?
Hit rate measures correct signals, while ROI also depends on the odds. At short prices, a high hit rate may still fail to cover losing stakes.
Is a small historical sample reliable?
A small sample is highly sensitive to a few outcomes and has wide variance. The simulator therefore flags samples below 30 and 100 settled predictions.
USE LIVE MODEL DATA
View predictions
Explore current predictions
Choose a match, review its probabilities and test your own assumed odds in the calculator.
18+
All materials are informational and do not guarantee any outcome. Predictions are produced by an automated model; the method is described on the Method page.
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