AC Milan — Atalanta BC: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
52.5%
Home win
AC Milan
X
25.7%
Draw
W2
21.8%
Away win
Atalanta BC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.2%
Both teams to score
Yes57.8%
Totals 2.5
Over56.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.2% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.8% / 42.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.5% / 82.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.8% / 92.2% |
Goal distribution model
AC Milan × Atalanta BC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.6%
0:1
4.5%
0:2
3.3%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
8.2%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
6.0%
1:3
2.2%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.8%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.5%
2:3
2.0%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.3%
3:1
6.0%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.4%
4:1
2.7%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
2:19.8%
2:08.8%
1:08.2%
0:06.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
AC Milan
5th place · 11 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Lecce 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Lazio 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Juventus 1:1
- 28.08.2026 home Venezia 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Torino 2:1
Atalanta BC
11th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 12.09.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Roma 1:2
- 31.08.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
This season: AC Milan at home vs Atalanta BC away
| Metric | AC Milan · at home | Atalanta BC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.20 | 0.65 |
| xG against per match | 0.51 | 2.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
AC Milan wins0
Draws2
Atalanta BC wins4
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 10.05.2026 AC Milan 2:3 Atalanta BC
- 28.10.2025 Atalanta BC 1:1 AC Milan
- 20.04.2025 AC Milan 0:1 Atalanta BC
- 06.12.2024 Atalanta BC 2:1 AC Milan
- 25.02.2024 AC Milan 1:1 Atalanta BC
- 09.12.2023 Atalanta BC 3:2 AC Milan
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.90 → now 1.83 |
| W2 | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
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