AC Monza — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 19.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
40.9%
Home win
AC Monza
X
29.6%
Draw
W2
29.6%
Away win
Cagliari Calcio
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X70.4%
Both teams to score
Yes54.7%
Totals 2.5
Under51.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.4% |
| 12 | 70.4% | |
| X2 | 59.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
Goal distribution model
AC Monza × Cagliari Calcio
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
9.0%
0:1
6.9%
0:2
5.1%
0:3
2.0%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
8.7%
1:1
14.1%
1:2
7.4%
1:3
2.9%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.5%
2:1
8.9%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
4.2%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.1%
0:09.0%
2:18.9%
1:08.7%
2:07.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.10.2026
AC Monza
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Lecce 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Parma 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Udinese 2:3
- 22.08.2026 away Inter 1:4
Cagliari Calcio
4th place · 12 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Udinese 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Atalanta 2:1
- 07.09.2026 home Lecce 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Inter 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Parma 1:0
This season: AC Monza at home vs Cagliari Calcio away
| Metric | AC Monza · at home | Cagliari Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.55 | 1.13 |
| xG against per match | 1.24 | 1.40 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
AC Monza wins1
Draws1
Cagliari Calcio wins2
Goals per match2.25
Both teams scored2/4
Over 2.5 goals2/4
- 30.03.2025 Cagliari Calcio 3:0 AC Monza
- 05.01.2025 AC Monza 1:2 Cagliari Calcio
- 16.03.2024 AC Monza 1:0 Cagliari Calcio
- 26.11.2023 Cagliari Calcio 1:1 AC Monza
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 2.35 |
| W2 | was 3.30 → now 3.20 |
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