Udinese Calcio — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
51.9%
Home win
Udinese Calcio
X
27.1%
Draw
W2
21.0%
Away win
US Lecce
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X79.0%
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
Totals 2.5
Over50.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.0% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 48.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Goal distribution model
Udinese Calcio × US Lecce
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.3%
0:1
5.4%
0:2
3.4%
0:3
1.1%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
10.0%
1:1
13.0%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
1.9%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.7%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.8%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.4%
3:1
5.4%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.3%
4:1
2.3%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.0%
1:010.0%
2:19.7%
2:09.7%
0:08.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Udinese Calcio
13th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Cagliari 0:1
- 14.09.2026 away Inter 3:5
- 07.09.2026 home Lazio 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Monza 3:2
- 22.08.2026 home Como 1:1
US Lecce
12th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Milan 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home Monza 3:2
- 07.09.2026 away Cagliari 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Roma 0:4
- 23.08.2026 away Venezia 2:0
This season: Udinese Calcio at home vs US Lecce away
| Metric | Udinese Calcio · at home | US Lecce · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.68 | 1.11 |
| xG against per match | 1.50 | 1.87 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Udinese Calcio wins4
Draws1
US Lecce wins1
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 08.02.2026 US Lecce 2:1 Udinese Calcio
- 25.10.2025 Udinese Calcio 3:2 US Lecce
- 21.02.2025 US Lecce 0:1 Udinese Calcio
- 05.10.2024 Udinese Calcio 1:0 US Lecce
- 13.05.2024 US Lecce 0:2 Udinese Calcio
- 23.10.2023 Udinese Calcio 1:1 US Lecce
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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