Venezia FC — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
18.2%
Home win
Venezia FC
X
23.6%
Draw
W2
58.2%
Away win
SSC Napoli
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X281.8%
Both teams to score
Yes57.7%
Totals 2.5
Over59.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 41.8% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 81.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.7% / 63.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Goal distribution model
Venezia FC × SSC Napoli
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.9%
0:1
8.2%
0:2
9.4%
0:3
6.3%
0:4
3.2%
0:5
1.3%
1
1:0
3.7%
1:1
11.1%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
6.7%
1:4
3.3%
1:5
1.3%
2
2:0
2.6%
2:1
5.2%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.8%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
0.9%
3:1
1.8%
3:2
1.8%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.5%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.1%
1:29.9%
0:29.4%
0:18.2%
1:36.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Venezia FC
20th place · 0 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Lazio 0:2
- 11.09.2026 home Fiorentina 2:4
- 06.09.2026 away Frosinone 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Milan 0:2
- 23.08.2026 home Lecce 0:2
SSC Napoli
9th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away Inter 2:3
- 30.08.2026 home Como 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Genoa 2:0
This season: Venezia FC at home vs SSC Napoli away
| Metric | Venezia FC · at home | SSC Napoli · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–3 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.47 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 2.54 | 1.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Venezia FC wins0
Draws1
SSC Napoli wins3
Goals per match1.25
Both teams scored0/4
Over 2.5 goals0/4
- 16.03.2025 Venezia FC 0:0 SSC Napoli
- 29.12.2024 SSC Napoli 1:0 Venezia FC
- 06.02.2022 Venezia FC 0:2 SSC Napoli
- 22.08.2021 SSC Napoli 2:0 Venezia FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.75 → now 5.00 |
| X | was 3.75 → now 3.90 |
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