Villarreal CF — Elche CF: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
65.5%
Home win
Villarreal CF
X
20.6%
Draw
W2
13.9%
Away win
Elche CF
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X86.1%
Both teams to score
Yes61.1%
Totals 2.5
Over67.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.1% |
| 12 | 79.4% | |
| X2 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.0% / 73.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
Goal distribution model
Villarreal CF × Elche CF
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.4%
0:1
2.0%
0:2
1.8%
0:3
0.6%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
6.1%
1:1
9.3%
1:2
4.3%
1:3
1.5%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.9%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
5.1%
2:3
1.8%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.2%
3:1
7.7%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
4.3%
4:1
4.6%
4:2
2.5%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
2.1%
5:1
2.2%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.6%
1:19.3%
2:08.9%
3:17.7%
3:07.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Villarreal CF
11th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Levante 3:1
- 17.09.2026 away Malaga 3:1
- 14.09.2026 home Betis 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home La Coruna 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Alaves 0:1
Elche CF
18th place · 5 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Espanol 3:1
- 15.09.2026 home Real Madrid 2:3
- 12.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 1:1
- 07.09.2026 home Sociedad 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Santander 2:3
This season: Villarreal CF at home vs Elche CF away
| Metric | Villarreal CF · at home | Elche CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.46 | 1.18 |
| xG against per match | 1.60 | 1.38 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Villarreal CF wins4
Draws0
Elche CF wins2
Goals per match3.50
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 08.03.2026 Villarreal CF 2:1 Elche CF
- 03.01.2026 Elche CF 1:3 Villarreal CF
- 04.02.2023 Elche CF 3:1 Villarreal CF
- 04.09.2022 Villarreal CF 4:0 Elche CF
- 16.01.2022 Elche CF 1:0 Villarreal CF
- 22.09.2021 Villarreal CF 4:1 Elche CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 6.00 → now 6.25 |
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