Valencia CF — Athletic Bilbao: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
26.6%
Home win
Valencia CF
X
26.6%
Draw
W2
46.8%
Away win
Athletic Bilbao
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X273.4%
Both teams to score
Yes53.8%
Totals 2.5
Over50.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 73.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Goal distribution model
Valencia CF × Athletic Bilbao
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.6%
0:1
10.1%
0:2
8.4%
0:3
4.3%
0:4
1.7%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
7.0%
1:1
12.7%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
4.8%
1:4
1.9%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.3%
2:1
6.7%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
1.6%
3:1
2.5%
3:2
1.9%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.7%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.7%
0:110.1%
1:29.3%
0:28.4%
0:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Valencia CF
19th place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Sociedad 2:3
- 15.09.2026 away Alaves 1:0
- 11.09.2026 away Sevilla 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Barcelona 0:5
- 30.08.2026 away La Coruna 1:3
Athletic Bilbao
12th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Alaves 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Elche 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away Celta 2:0
- 27.08.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
This season: Valencia CF at home vs Athletic Bilbao away
| Metric | Valencia CF · at home | Athletic Bilbao · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.98 | 1.45 |
| xG against per match | 2.03 | 2.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.25 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Valencia CF wins3
Draws1
Athletic Bilbao wins2
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 10.05.2026 Athletic Bilbao 0:1 Valencia CF
- 20.09.2025 Valencia CF 2:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 18.05.2025 Valencia CF 0:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 28.08.2024 Athletic Bilbao 1:0 Valencia CF
- 20.01.2024 Valencia CF 1:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 29.10.2023 Athletic Bilbao 2:2 Valencia CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.30 → now 3.50 |
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