RC Celta de Vigo — Deportivo Alaves: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
49.1%
Home win
RC Celta de Vigo
X
26.4%
Draw
W2
24.5%
Away win
Deportivo Alaves
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X75.5%
Both teams to score
Yes50.8%
Totals 2.5
Under52.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Goal distribution model
RC Celta de Vigo × Deportivo Alaves
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.1%
0:1
7.4%
0:2
4.0%
0:3
1.4%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
11.4%
1:1
12.6%
1:2
6.2%
1:3
2.1%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.2%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
4.8%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.7%
3:1
4.8%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.8%
4:1
1.9%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.6%
1:011.4%
2:19.4%
2:09.2%
0:08.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
RC Celta de Vigo
10th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Santander 5:0
- 13.09.2026 home Malaga 1:1
- 07.09.2026 away Getafe 1:1
- 03.09.2026 away Sociedad 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home Ath Bilbao 0:2
Deportivo Alaves
6th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:0
- 15.09.2026 home Valencia 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Santander 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Osasuna 5:2
- 28.08.2026 home Villarreal 1:0
This season: RC Celta de Vigo at home vs Deportivo Alaves away
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo · at home | Deportivo Alaves · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–2 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 1.59 | 1.35 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 3.25 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
RC Celta de Vigo wins2
Draws2
Deportivo Alaves wins2
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 22.03.2026 RC Celta de Vigo 3:4 Deportivo Alaves
- 22.11.2025 Deportivo Alaves 0:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 27.01.2025 Deportivo Alaves 1:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 16.08.2024 RC Celta de Vigo 2:1 Deportivo Alaves
- 27.04.2024 Deportivo Alaves 3:0 RC Celta de Vigo
- 28.09.2023 RC Celta de Vigo 1:1 Deportivo Alaves
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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