Malaga CF — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
29.1%
Home win
Malaga CF
X
26.5%
Draw
W2
44.4%
Away win
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.5%
Both teams to score
Yes59.2%
Totals 2.5
Over55.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.6% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 70.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.9% / 20.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
Malaga CF × Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.5%
0:1
7.7%
0:2
7.2%
0:3
3.9%
0:4
1.6%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
5.9%
1:1
12.4%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
5.0%
1:4
2.0%
1:5
0.7%
2
2:0
4.5%
2:1
7.3%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
3.2%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
1.9%
3:1
3.1%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.4%
1:29.3%
0:17.7%
2:17.3%
0:27.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Malaga CF
20th place · 3 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Getafe 0:1
- 17.09.2026 home Villarreal 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Celta 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Levante 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Real Madrid 0:4
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
8th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Valencia 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:3
- 07.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
- 03.09.2026 home Celta 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Espanol 2:1
This season: Malaga CF at home vs Real Sociedad San Sebastian away
| Metric | Malaga CF · at home | Real Sociedad San Sebastian · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| xG against per match | 1.81 | 2.10 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.10 → now 3.20 |
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