Real Madrid — Sevilla FC: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
78.5%
Home win
Real Madrid
X
12.2%
Draw
W2
9.3%
Away win
Sevilla FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X90.7%
Both teams to score
Yes54.3%
Totals 2.5
Over71.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.7% |
| 12 | 87.8% | |
| X2 | 21.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.2% / 1.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.0% / 12.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.9% / 28.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
Goal distribution model
Real Madrid × Sevilla FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.8%
0:1
2.7%
0:2
0.9%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.5%
1:1
5.4%
1:2
2.6%
1:3
0.8%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
9.8%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
3.7%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
9.3%
3:1
8.1%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
6.6%
4:1
5.8%
4:2
2.5%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.8%
5:1
3.3%
5:2
1.4%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:09.8%
3:09.3%
2:18.6%
3:18.1%
1:07.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Real Madrid
4th place · 15 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Ath Madrid 1:2
- 15.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Vallecano 4:1
- 04.09.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Malaga 4:0
Sevilla FC
5th place · 13 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Barcelona 1:3
- 16.09.2026 away La Coruna 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Valencia 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Espanol 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Ath Madrid 1:3
This season: Real Madrid at home vs Sevilla FC away
| Metric | Real Madrid · at home | Sevilla FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.72 | 0.56 |
| xG against per match | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Real Madrid wins5
Draws1
Sevilla FC wins0
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 17.05.2026 Sevilla FC 0:1 Real Madrid
- 20.12.2025 Real Madrid 2:0 Sevilla FC
- 18.05.2025 Sevilla FC 0:2 Real Madrid
- 22.12.2024 Real Madrid 4:2 Sevilla FC
- 25.02.2024 Real Madrid 1:0 Sevilla FC
- 21.10.2023 Sevilla FC 1:1 Real Madrid
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 6.50 → now 7.00 |
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