Getafe CF — Rayo Vallecano: Win probabilities, 19.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
32.9%
Home win
Getafe CF
X
30.4%
Draw
W2
36.6%
Away win
Rayo Vallecano
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1269.6%
Both teams to score
No53.8%
Totals 2.5
Under61.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.4% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 67.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.2% / 53.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Goal distribution model
Getafe CF × Rayo Vallecano
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
11.5%
0:1
11.5%
0:2
7.1%
0:3
2.7%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
10.7%
1:1
14.2%
1:2
7.7%
1:3
3.0%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
6.2%
2:1
7.2%
2:2
4.2%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
2.3%
3:1
2.6%
3:2
1.5%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
0.7%
4:2
0.4%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.2%
0:111.5%
0:011.5%
1:010.7%
1:27.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.10.2026
Getafe CF
13th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Malaga 1:0
- 17.09.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 13.09.2026 home La Coruna 1:1
- 07.09.2026 home Celta 1:1
- 31.08.2026 away Osasuna 0:1
Rayo Vallecano
14th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Osasuna 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Espanol 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Real Madrid 1:4
- 05.09.2026 home Santander 3:2
- 31.08.2026 away Barcelona 2:5
This season: Getafe CF at home vs Rayo Vallecano away
| Metric | Getafe CF · at home | Rayo Vallecano · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–0 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.94 | 1.30 |
| xG against per match | 0.91 | 2.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Getafe CF wins0
Draws3
Rayo Vallecano wins3
Goals per match1.17
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals0/6
- 03.05.2026 Getafe CF 0:2 Rayo Vallecano
- 02.01.2026 Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Getafe CF
- 02.05.2025 Rayo Vallecano 1:0 Getafe CF
- 24.08.2024 Getafe CF 0:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 13.04.2024 Rayo Vallecano 0:0 Getafe CF
- 02.01.2024 Getafe CF 0:2 Rayo Vallecano
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.00 → now 3.10 |
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