Levante UD — Athletic Bilbao: Win probabilities, 21.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
27.8%
Home win
Levante UD
X
27.0%
Draw
W2
45.2%
Away win
Athletic Bilbao
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.0%
Both teams to score
Yes54.9%
Totals 2.5
Over50.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.8% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 72.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.0% / 24.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Goal distribution model
Levante UD × Athletic Bilbao
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.6%
0:1
9.5%
0:2
8.0%
0:3
4.1%
0:4
1.6%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
6.9%
1:1
12.8%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
4.7%
1:4
1.8%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.5%
2:1
7.0%
2:2
5.4%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
1.8%
3:1
2.7%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.9%
0:19.5%
1:29.2%
0:28.0%
0:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 21.10.2026
Levante UD
17th place · 5 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Villarreal 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Barcelona 2:4
- 06.09.2026 away Malaga 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Betis 5:2
- 24.08.2026 away Osasuna 0:0
Athletic Bilbao
12th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Alaves 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Elche 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away Celta 2:0
- 27.08.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
This season: Levante UD at home vs Athletic Bilbao away
| Metric | Levante UD · at home | Athletic Bilbao · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.59 | 1.45 |
| xG against per match | 2.26 | 2.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.50 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Levante UD wins0
Draws2
Athletic Bilbao wins4
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 08.02.2026 Athletic Bilbao 4:2 Levante UD
- 29.11.2025 Levante UD 0:2 Athletic Bilbao
- 07.03.2022 Athletic Bilbao 3:1 Levante UD
- 19.11.2021 Levante UD 0:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 26.02.2021 Levante UD 1:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 18.10.2020 Athletic Bilbao 2:0 Levante UD
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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