Espanyol Barcelona — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
21.7%
Home win
Espanyol Barcelona
X
24.8%
Draw
W2
53.5%
Away win
Atletico Madrid
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X278.3%
Both teams to score
Yes56.7%
Totals 2.5
Over55.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.5% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 78.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.7% / 20.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
Espanyol Barcelona × Atletico Madrid
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.4%
0:1
8.9%
0:2
9.0%
0:3
5.5%
0:4
2.5%
0:5
0.9%
1
1:0
5.0%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
9.8%
1:3
6.0%
1:4
2.7%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.2%
2:1
5.9%
2:2
5.4%
2:3
3.3%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
1.2%
3:1
2.1%
3:2
2.0%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.7%
1:29.8%
0:29.0%
0:18.9%
0:06.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Espanyol Barcelona
15th place · 7 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Elche 1:3
- 15.09.2026 away Vallecano 1:2
- 12.09.2026 away Osasuna 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Sevilla 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Sociedad 1:2
Atletico Madrid
2nd place · 16 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Real Madrid 2:1
- 16.09.2026 home Osasuna 4:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sociedad 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
This season: Espanyol Barcelona at home vs Atletico Madrid away
| Metric | Espanyol Barcelona · at home | Atletico Madrid · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.22 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 1.24 | 0.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 0.75 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Espanyol Barcelona wins1
Draws4
Atletico Madrid wins1
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 21.02.2026 Atletico Madrid 4:2 Espanyol Barcelona
- 17.08.2025 Espanyol Barcelona 2:1 Atletico Madrid
- 29.03.2025 Espanyol Barcelona 1:1 Atletico Madrid
- 28.08.2024 Atletico Madrid 0:0 Espanyol Barcelona
- 24.05.2023 Espanyol Barcelona 3:3 Atletico Madrid
- 06.11.2022 Atletico Madrid 1:1 Espanyol Barcelona
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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