SC Freiburg — Schalke 04: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 39.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
SC Freiburg
3rd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home M'gladbach 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Werder Bremen 4:1
- 16.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
Schalke 04
11th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Elversberg 0:0
- 11.09.2026 away Union Berlin 3:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bayern Munich 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Augsburg 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Braunschweig 1:0
This season: SC Freiburg at home vs Schalke 04 away
| Metric | SC Freiburg · at home | Schalke 04 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.27 | 2.03 |
| xG against per match | 0.34 | 2.74 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 7.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.04.2023 SC Freiburg 4:0 Schalke 04
- 30.10.2022 Schalke 04 0:2 SC Freiburg
- 17.04.2021 SC Freiburg 4:0 Schalke 04
- 16.12.2020 Schalke 04 0:2 SC Freiburg
- 27.06.2020 SC Freiburg 4:0 Schalke 04
- 21.12.2019 Schalke 04 2:2 SC Freiburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Freiburg have a slight edge over Schalke 04 in this Bundesliga matchup, although the overall assessment carries only moderate confidence. The home side are viewed as the stronger team, but the gap is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. The projected scoring profile points toward an open game with several opportunities at both ends.
Schalke 04 are also expected to contribute on the scoresheet, making both teams scoring a notable feature of the outlook. The most plausible scorelines include a balanced 1:1 draw alongside 2:1 and 2:0 possibilities for SC Freiburg. Overall, the analysis favors SC Freiburg, while recognizing that the match could remain competitive and that a draw is also a credible outcome.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.