FSV Mainz — Bayer Leverkusen: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.3% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.8% / 33.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
FSV Mainz
6th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away M'gladbach 4:3
- 12.09.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 1:3
- 06.09.2026 away Hamburg 5:0
- 29.08.2026 home Paderborn 0:0
- 16.05.2026 away Heidenheim 2:0
Bayer Leverkusen
5th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Union Berlin 4:0
- 29.08.2026 away Elversberg 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
This season: FSV Mainz at home vs Bayer Leverkusen away
| Metric | FSV Mainz · at home | Bayer Leverkusen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.68 | 2.26 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 1.19 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.50 | 8.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 FSV Mainz
- 18.10.2025 FSV Mainz 3:4 Bayer Leverkusen
- 17.05.2025 FSV Mainz 2:2 Bayer Leverkusen
- 14.01.2025 Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 FSV Mainz
- 23.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 FSV Mainz
- 30.09.2023 FSV Mainz 0:3 Bayer Leverkusen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FSV Mainz host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga sitting just one place and the same points total apart in the table, with both clubs on seven points from four matches. The broader form picture is close, yet the recent history between these sides tilts the balance: in the last six meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won four and the remaining two ended level, meaning FSV Mainz are still searching for a win in this fixture. The most recent encounter finished 1-1, underlining that even when results go against the hosts, goals tend to arrive at both ends.
Context from this season reinforces that sense of a slight edge for the visitors. FSV Mainz have yet to win at home, taking one point from two matches and conceding more than they have scored on their own ground. Bayer Leverkusen have not been dominant on the road either, but their underlying chance quality away from home is noticeably stronger than what they have allowed.
Taken together, the signs point to an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net. Bayer Leverkusen carry the better recent record in this fixture, while FSV Mainz have the attacking output in their last five to stay in the game.
What matters before kick-off
Late call on Maza's availability
Bayer Leverkusen midfielder Ibrahim Maza sustained an ankle injury on international duty with Algeria. A late decision will be made on his fitness ahead of the Bundesliga clash with Mainz.
Kofane sidelined for Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen forward Christian Kofane suffered a thigh injury while away with Cameroon and is expected to miss upcoming fixtures, including the trip to Mainz.
Mainz trio back in training
Mainz received a squad boost ahead of facing Bayer Leverkusen as Paul Nebel, Silvan Widmer, and Fabio Gruber returned to full team training.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.