SC Paderborn 07 — VfB Stuttgart: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.5% |
| 12 | 80.2% | |
| X2 | 81.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.3% / 28.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.4% / 62.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
SC Paderborn 07
12th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Hoffenheim 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Dortmund 0:3
- 05.09.2026 home Freiburg 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Mainz 0:0
- 17.05.2026 away Darmstadt 2:0
VfB Stuttgart
15th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Dortmund 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 1:2
- 04.09.2026 home FC Koln 4:1
- 28.08.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 16.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
This season: SC Paderborn 07 at home vs VfB Stuttgart away
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 · at home | VfB Stuttgart · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 3.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.73 | 1.48 |
| xG against per match | 1.37 | 3.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Paderborn 07 host VfB Stuttgart in a Bundesliga meeting between two sides whose league standing does not yet reflect their reputations. The hosts sit 12th with 4 points from 4 matches, while the visitors are even lower in 15th on 3 points. Recent form offers a mixed picture: Paderborn have taken two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five, scoring and conceding five goals, while Stuttgart arrive on the back of three losses, one draw and a single win across their last five, with a telling 8 scored and 11 conceded.
At home, SC Paderborn 07 have one win and one defeat from two matches, with three scored and two conceded, and the underlying picture suggests they allow clearly more chances than they create. VfB Stuttgart's travels have been harsher, with two away matches producing two defeats, two goals scored and seven conceded, and a similar imbalance in chance quality.
On balance, there is a moderate edge for the visitors despite their fragile away record, given the hosts' defensive concerns in their own stadium. Both teams have found the net regularly, pointing toward an open, high-scoring encounter rather than a cagey afternoon.
What matters before kick-off
Goalkeeper Dennis Seimen set for Bundesliga debut with VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart head coach Sebastian Hoeneß confirmed that 20-year-old goalkeeper Dennis Seimen will start ahead of Fabian Bredlow against his former loan club SC Paderborn 07.
SC Paderborn 07 secured their first season win before the international break
SC Paderborn 07 claimed a 3-1 home victory against TSG Hoffenheim on matchday four, scoring their first goals and earning their first Bundesliga win of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.