Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.3% |
| 12 | 82.3% | |
| X2 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
Borussia Dortmund
1st place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Paderborn 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Hamburg 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:0
Werder Bremen
8th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Augsburg 3:2
- 12.09.2026 away FC Koln 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 16.05.2026 home Dortmund 0:2
This season: Borussia Dortmund at home vs Werder Bremen away
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund · at home | Werder Bremen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.59 | 0.80 |
| xG against per match | 0.65 | 1.80 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.05.2026 Werder Bremen 0:2 Borussia Dortmund
- 13.01.2026 Borussia Dortmund 3:0 Werder Bremen
- 25.01.2025 Borussia Dortmund 2:2 Werder Bremen
- 31.08.2024 Werder Bremen 0:0 Borussia Dortmund
- 09.03.2024 Werder Bremen 1:2 Borussia Dortmund
- 20.10.2023 Borussia Dortmund 1:0 Werder Bremen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund enter this Bundesliga meeting with a clear qualitative edge over Werder Bremen. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence in that outlook. The attacking profile also points toward a high-scoring contest, suggesting that Borussia Dortmund should be capable of creating sustained pressure and opportunities.
Werder Bremen still have a route into the match, particularly given that both teams scoring is assessed as a coin flip. The most plausible scorelines in the supplied analysis are 2:0, 3:0, and 2:1, which reflect a range of outcomes while maintaining the overall advantage for Borussia Dortmund. The central expectation is therefore for Borussia Dortmund to control the game and have the stronger attacking influence, although Werder Bremen could contribute to the scoring depending on how the match develops.
What matters before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund fitness concerns
Head coach Niko Kovac confirmed that Nico Schlotterbeck, Julian Ryerson, and Carney Chukwuemeka returned from international duty with fitness concerns ahead of the Werder Bremen match.
Borussia Dortmund's strong start in the Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund won their opening four Bundesliga games of a new season for the first time in 11 years as they host Werder Bremen aiming for a fifth straight victory.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.