TSG Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.9% |
| 12 | 81.5% | |
| X2 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
TSG Hoffenheim
14th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:3
- 12.09.2026 home Stuttgart 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Dortmund 2:3
- 29.08.2026 away FC Koln 2:3
- 16.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:4
Hamburger SV
16th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home FC Koln 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:5
- 06.09.2026 home Mainz 0:5
- 29.08.2026 away Dortmund 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:1
This season: TSG Hoffenheim at home vs Hamburger SV away
| Metric | TSG Hoffenheim · at home | Hamburger SV · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 3.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.26 | 0.95 |
| xG against per match | 2.11 | 1.92 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 25.04.2026 Hamburger SV 1:2 TSG Hoffenheim
- 13.12.2025 TSG Hoffenheim 4:1 Hamburger SV
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
TSG Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga fixture between two sides occupying the lower reaches of the table. The hosts sit 14th with 3 points from 4 matches, while the visitors are two places further back in 16th on the same points tally. Neither team arrives in strong form: TSG Hoffenheim have taken one win from their last five, and Hamburger SV have managed just one victory and one draw in the same span, conceding 14 goals along the way.
The away record so far tells a particularly stark story. Hamburger SV have lost both of their trips this season without scoring, shipping seven goals in the process, and the underlying picture suggests they allow clearly more chances than they create on the road. TSG Hoffenheim at home have been more balanced, taking a win and a loss from two matches with chances created and allowed roughly level. The head-to-head also favours the hosts, who have won both previous meetings, with TSG Hoffenheim edging Hamburger SV 2-1 in the most recent encounter in 2026.
Taken together, the hosts look stronger here, though confidence is only moderate given the fragile defensive numbers on both sides. Goals at either end would not be a surprise.
What matters before kick-off
Hamburger SV attacking injury concerns
Hamburger SV forward Patson Daka will miss the match after suffering a muscle fibre tear while on international duty. Forward Albert Grönbaek is also unavailable for selection.
Hamburger SV secured first league win before the break
Hamburger SV entered the international break after securing their first Bundesliga victory of the season with a 2-1 win over 1. FC Köln. This came after starting their league campaign with three consecutive defeats without scoring.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.