FC Augsburg — Bayern Munich: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 16.7% |
| 12 | 90.5% | |
| X2 | 92.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.3% / 0.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 34.7% / 65.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
FC Augsburg
4th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Leverkusen 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 4:1
- 30.08.2026 home Schalke 04 3:0
- 16.05.2026 away Union Berlin 0:4
Bayern Munich
2nd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Union Berlin 7:0
- 13.09.2026 away Elversberg 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Schalke 04 0:0
- 28.08.2026 home Stuttgart 5:1
- 16.05.2026 home FC Koln 5:1
This season: FC Augsburg at home vs Bayern Munich away
| Metric | FC Augsburg · at home | Bayern Munich · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.32 | 2.39 |
| xG against per match | 2.09 | 0.57 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 10.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.01.2026 Bayern Munich 1:2 FC Augsburg
- 30.08.2025 FC Augsburg 2:3 Bayern Munich
- 04.04.2025 FC Augsburg 1:3 Bayern Munich
- 22.11.2024 Bayern Munich 3:0 FC Augsburg
- 27.01.2024 FC Augsburg 2:3 Bayern Munich
- 27.08.2023 Bayern Munich 3:1 FC Augsburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Augsburg host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga having settled into fourth place after four matches, with a home record of one win and one draw from two games and five goals scored against two conceded. Recent form across all competitions has been uneven, however, producing two wins, a draw and two defeats, so the picture at this stage is of a side that competes without yet looking fully settled.
Bayern Munich arrive in second place on ten points from four games, unbeaten across their last five outings with four wins and nineteen goals scored against only three allowed. Their away sample this season is smaller, with one win and one draw from two trips, but the broader body of work points to a visiting side that creates clearly more chances than it concedes. The head-to-head record also leans heavily their way, with five wins from the last six meetings.
The one note of caution for the visitors is the last meeting itself, when FC Augsburg won 2-1 away in Munich. Even so, the weight of evidence suggests the away side are clearly stronger here, with goals likely at both ends in a high-scoring contest.
What matters before kick-off
Bayern's Strong Away Record
Bayern Munich have won 11 and drawn one of their last 15 Bundesliga away matches against FC Augsburg. This gives them a 73 percent win rate in away games against FCA.
Augsburg's Prolific Start
FC Augsburg scored 11 goals across their opening four Bundesliga matches of the season. This represents the most prolific attack-minded start to a league campaign in club history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.