Union Berlin — SV 07 Elversberg: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.9% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.2% / 59.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Union Berlin
17th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Bayern Munich 0:7
- 11.09.2026 home Schalke 04 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:4
- 29.08.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Augsburg 4:0
SV 07 Elversberg
7th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Schalke 04 0:0
- 13.09.2026 home Bayern Munich 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away M'gladbach 4:3
- 29.08.2026 home Leverkusen 3:2
- 17.05.2026 home Preußen Münster 3:0
This season: Union Berlin at home vs SV 07 Elversberg away
| Metric | Union Berlin · at home | SV 07 Elversberg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.90 | 1.66 |
| xG against per match | 1.99 | 1.69 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union Berlin arrive into this fixture under clear pressure, sitting 17th of 18 in the Bundesliga with just one point from four matches. Their recent form reads L L L D W, and the goal column tells the story: eight scored against seventeen conceded across the last five games. At home they have played twice, drawing one and losing one, with four goals scored and six allowed, so the defensive issues have travelled with them to their own ground.
SV 07 Elversberg come in with the stronger recent momentum, having taken three wins, one draw and a single defeat from their last five, scoring eleven along the way. They sit seventh with seven points from four, and on the road they are unbeaten from two outings, winning once and drawing once with four scored and three conceded. The underlying chance quality on both sides is described as roughly level at home and away respectively, which tempers the gap suggested by form alone.
That combination points to an evenly matched contest with a moderate lean, rather than a one-sided afternoon. Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky, so goals at either end look to be the central thread, with scorelines such as 1:1, 2:1 or 1:2 fitting the overall profile.
What matters before kick-off
First Competitive Meeting
The match marks the first-ever competitive fixture between 1. FC Union Berlin and SV 07 Elversberg.
Union Berlin Squad Absences
1. FC Union Berlin will be without Stanley Nsoki, Josip Juranovic, and Andrej Ilic for the fixture.
Return for Frederik Schmahl
SV 07 Elversberg midfielder Frederik Schmahl returns to face his former club, having played in Union Berlin's youth system up to the U19 level.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.