1. FC Cologne — Borussia Monchengladbach: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.1% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
1. FC Cologne
13th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Hamburg 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:4
- 29.08.2026 home Hoffenheim 3:2
- 16.05.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
Borussia Monchengladbach
18th place · 0 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Mainz 3:4
- 12.09.2026 away Freiburg 0:5
- 05.09.2026 home Elversberg 3:4
- 29.08.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hoffenheim 4:0
This season: 1. FC Cologne at home vs Borussia Monchengladbach away
| Metric | 1. FC Cologne · at home | Borussia Monchengladbach · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.80 | 0.64 |
| xG against per match | 1.50 | 3.28 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 1. FC Cologne 3:3 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 08.11.2025 Borussia Monchengladbach 3:1 1. FC Cologne
- 09.03.2024 Borussia Monchengladbach 3:3 1. FC Cologne
- 22.10.2023 1. FC Cologne 3:1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 02.04.2023 1. FC Cologne 0:0 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 09.10.2022 Borussia Monchengladbach 5:2 1. FC Cologne
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
1. FC Cologne come into this Bundesliga meeting with a slight edge over Borussia Monchengladbach, with the overall assessment pointing toward the hosts as the stronger side. The confidence level in that assessment is high, although the matchup still allows for a competitive contest rather than a one-sided expectation.
The scoring outlook suggests an open game, with both 1. FC Cologne and Borussia Monchengladbach likely to contribute to the scoreline. The most plausible scorelines include a draw as well as narrow wins for either side, which underlines the possibility of a closely contested match despite the home advantage. Overall, the 1X signal favors 1. FC Cologne avoiding defeat, while the high-scoring profile points toward an encounter with opportunities at both ends.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.