Newcastle United — Aston Villa: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
43.8%
Home win
Newcastle United
X
25.1%
Draw
W2
31.1%
Away win
Aston Villa
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.9%
Both teams to score
Yes62.6%
Totals 2.5
Over60.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.9% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.5% / 17.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.8% / 62.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.4% / 79.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
Goal distribution model
Newcastle United × Aston Villa
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.2%
0:1
5.5%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
2.1%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
6.8%
1:1
11.4%
1:2
7.5%
1:3
3.5%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.4%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.7%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.6%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.4%
2:19.1%
1:27.5%
1:06.8%
2:06.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Newcastle United
9th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Hull 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Leeds 1:4
- 05.09.2026 home Bournemouth 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Tottenham 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home Liverpool 2:2
Aston Villa
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Tottenham 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Hull 0:0
- 31.08.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
This season: Newcastle United at home vs Aston Villa away
| Metric | Newcastle United · at home | Aston Villa · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.24 | 1.12 |
| xG against per match | 1.98 | 1.97 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| Corners per match | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Newcastle United wins3
Draws1
Aston Villa wins2
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 25.01.2026 Newcastle United 0:2 Aston Villa
- 16.08.2025 Aston Villa 0:0 Newcastle United
- 19.04.2025 Aston Villa 4:1 Newcastle United
- 26.12.2024 Newcastle United 3:0 Aston Villa
- 30.01.2024 Aston Villa 1:3 Newcastle United
- 12.08.2023 Newcastle United 5:1 Aston Villa
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.09 → now 2.20 |
| W2 | was 3.25 → now 3.05 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.