Everton — Chelsea: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
30.1%
Home win
Everton
X
25.8%
Draw
W2
44.1%
Away win
Chelsea
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.2%
Both teams to score
Yes68.5%
Totals 2.5
Over66.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.9% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 69.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
Goal distribution model
Everton × Chelsea
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.0%
0:1
4.3%
0:2
5.7%
0:3
3.6%
0:4
1.7%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
3.2%
1:1
11.2%
1:2
8.9%
1:3
5.6%
1:4
2.6%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.9%
2:1
7.3%
2:2
6.9%
2:3
4.3%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
2.0%
3:1
3.8%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
2.2%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.2%
1:28.9%
2:17.3%
2:26.9%
0:25.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Everton
7th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Ipswich 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Tottenham 0:0
- 06.09.2026 home Man United 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:0
Chelsea
10th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Brentford 0:3
- 12.09.2026 home Hull 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Arsenal 1:2
- 30.08.2026 home Brighton 4:3
- 24.08.2026 away Fulham 3:2
This season: Everton at home vs Chelsea away
| Metric | Everton · at home | Chelsea · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.46 | 0.98 |
| xG against per match | 1.36 | 2.02 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Everton wins2
Draws1
Chelsea wins3
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored0/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 21.03.2026 Everton 3:0 Chelsea
- 13.12.2025 Chelsea 2:0 Everton
- 26.04.2025 Chelsea 1:0 Everton
- 22.12.2024 Everton 0:0 Chelsea
- 15.04.2024 Chelsea 6:0 Everton
- 10.12.2023 Everton 2:0 Chelsea
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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