Bournemouth — Sunderland: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.1%
Home win
Bournemouth
X
26.0%
Draw
W2
25.9%
Away win
Sunderland
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X74.1%
Both teams to score
Yes56.0%
Totals 2.5
Over53.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Goal distribution model
Bournemouth × Sunderland
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.9%
0:1
6.2%
0:2
4.0%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.2%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
6.7%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.3%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
5.5%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.5%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
2:19.5%
1:09.2%
2:08.3%
0:06.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Bournemouth
17th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
Sunderland
14th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Man City 3:5
- 12.09.2026 home Arsenal 0:2
- 05.09.2026 away Brentford 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Fulham 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
This season: Bournemouth at home vs Sunderland away
| Metric | Bournemouth · at home | Sunderland · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.56 | 1.98 |
| xG against per match | 1.33 | 1.94 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Bournemouth wins0
Draws1
Sunderland wins1
Goals per match3.50
Both teams scored2/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
- 28.02.2026 Bournemouth 1:1 Sunderland
- 29.11.2025 Sunderland 3:2 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.56 → now 3.68 |
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