Leeds United — Manchester United: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
37.7%
Home win
Leeds United
X
26.2%
Draw
W2
36.1%
Away win
Manchester United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.8%
Both teams to score
Yes70.1%
Totals 2.5
Over67.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.9% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.3% / 11.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.8% / 32.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.3% / 72.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
Goal distribution model
Leeds United × Manchester United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.0%
0:1
3.3%
0:2
4.5%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
1.1%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
3.4%
1:1
11.2%
1:2
8.0%
1:3
4.6%
1:4
2.0%
1:5
0.7%
2
2:0
4.7%
2:1
8.2%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
4.1%
2:4
1.8%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
4.8%
3:2
4.2%
3:3
2.4%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
2.1%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:111.2%
2:18.2%
1:28.0%
2:27.1%
0:05.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Leeds United
5th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Crystal Palace 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Newcastle 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Brighton 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
Manchester United
12th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fulham 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
- 06.09.2026 away Everton 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Ipswich 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away Hull 0:2
This season: Leeds United at home vs Manchester United away
| Metric | Leeds United · at home | Manchester United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.55 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 1.16 | 1.21 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| Corners per match | 4.67 | 7.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Leeds United wins1
Draws2
Manchester United wins3
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 13.04.2026 Manchester United 1:2 Leeds United
- 04.01.2026 Leeds United 1:1 Manchester United
- 12.02.2023 Leeds United 0:2 Manchester United
- 08.02.2023 Manchester United 2:2 Leeds United
- 20.02.2022 Leeds United 2:4 Manchester United
- 14.08.2021 Manchester United 5:1 Leeds United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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