Nottingham Forest — Arsenal: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
14.2%
Home win
Nottingham Forest
X
23.5%
Draw
W2
62.2%
Away win
Arsenal
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X285.8%
Both teams to score
No53.2%
Totals 2.5
Under50.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 37.8% |
| 12 | 76.5% | |
| X2 | 85.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Goal distribution model
Nottingham Forest × Arsenal
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.9%
0:1
12.3%
0:2
12.3%
0:3
7.7%
0:4
3.6%
0:5
1.3%
1
1:0
4.7%
1:1
11.2%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
6.0%
1:4
2.8%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
2.2%
2:1
4.0%
2:2
3.8%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
0.6%
3:1
1.1%
3:2
1.0%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.2%
4:2
0.2%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.0%
5:2
0.0%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
0:112.3%
0:212.3%
1:111.2%
1:29.6%
0:07.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Nottingham Forest
13th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Coventry 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Aston Villa 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Tottenham 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Liverpool 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Leeds 0:1
Arsenal
2nd place · 12 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Brighton 0:3
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
This season: Nottingham Forest at home vs Arsenal away
| Metric | Nottingham Forest · at home | Arsenal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.89 | 1.52 |
| xG against per match | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Nottingham Forest wins0
Draws2
Arsenal wins4
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 17.01.2026 Nottingham Forest 0:0 Arsenal
- 13.09.2025 Arsenal 3:0 Nottingham Forest
- 26.02.2025 Nottingham Forest 0:0 Arsenal
- 23.11.2024 Arsenal 3:0 Nottingham Forest
- 30.01.2024 Nottingham Forest 1:2 Arsenal
- 12.08.2023 Arsenal 2:1 Nottingham Forest
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.32 → now 6.55 |
| X | was 3.84 → now 4.04 |
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