Brighton and Hove Albion — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
62.2%
Home win
Brighton and Hove Albion
X
20.3%
Draw
W2
17.5%
Away win
Crystal Palace
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.5%
Both teams to score
Yes65.3%
Totals 2.5
Over70.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.5% |
| 12 | 79.7% | |
| X2 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.0% / 70.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
Goal distribution model
Brighton and Hove Albion × Crystal Palace
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.5%
0:1
2.4%
0:2
2.0%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
5.5%
1:1
8.7%
1:2
4.8%
1:3
2.0%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.6%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
6.1%
3:1
7.5%
3:2
4.6%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.6%
4:1
4.5%
4:2
2.8%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.7%
5:1
2.2%
5:2
1.3%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.4%
1:18.7%
2:07.6%
3:17.5%
3:06.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Brighton and Hove Albion
3rd place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Arsenal 3:0
- 13.09.2026 away Coventry 5:0
- 05.09.2026 home Leeds 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Chelsea 3:4
- 23.08.2026 home Aston Villa 4:0
Crystal Palace
15th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Leeds 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Man City 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
This season: Brighton and Hove Albion at home vs Crystal Palace away
| Metric | Brighton and Hove Albion · at home | Crystal Palace · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 2.43 | 1.66 |
| xG against per match | 1.47 | 1.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Brighton and Hove Albion wins1
Draws2
Crystal Palace wins3
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 08.02.2026 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:1 Crystal Palace
- 09.11.2025 Crystal Palace 0:0 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 05.04.2025 Crystal Palace 2:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 15.12.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 1:3 Crystal Palace
- 03.02.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 4:1 Crystal Palace
- 21.12.2023 Crystal Palace 1:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.03 → now 4.65 |
| W2 | was 5.85 → now 5.38 |
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