Brentford — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.6%
Home win
Brentford
X
26.3%
Draw
W2
35.0%
Away win
Liverpool
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.7%
Both teams to score
Yes73.4%
Totals 2.5
Over71.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.0% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 73.4% / 26.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Goal distribution model
Brentford × Liverpool
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.8%
0:1
2.1%
0:2
4.0%
0:3
2.4%
0:4
1.1%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
2.3%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
4.6%
1:4
2.1%
1:5
0.8%
2
2:0
4.4%
2:1
8.0%
2:2
7.2%
2:3
4.4%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
5.1%
3:2
4.6%
3:3
2.8%
3:4
1.2%
3:5
0.5%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
2.4%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
1.3%
4:4
0.6%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.9%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
2:18.0%
1:27.6%
2:27.2%
3:15.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Brentford
4th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Chelsea 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Bournemouth 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Sunderland 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Tottenham 3:0
Liverpool
6th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Bournemouth 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Fulham 0:0
- 04.09.2026 away Ipswich 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Nott'm Forest 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
This season: Brentford at home vs Liverpool away
| Metric | Brentford · at home | Liverpool · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.58 | 1.77 |
| xG against per match | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Brentford wins1
Draws1
Liverpool wins4
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 24.05.2026 Liverpool 1:1 Brentford
- 25.10.2025 Brentford 3:2 Liverpool
- 18.01.2025 Brentford 0:2 Liverpool
- 25.08.2024 Liverpool 2:0 Brentford
- 17.02.2024 Brentford 1:4 Liverpool
- 12.11.2023 Liverpool 3:0 Brentford
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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