Manchester City — Ipswich Town: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
80.3%
Home win
Manchester City
X
11.7%
Draw
W2
8.0%
Away win
Ipswich Town
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X92.0%
Both teams to score
Yes50.1%
Totals 2.5
Over69.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.0% |
| 12 | 88.3% | |
| X2 | 19.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.9% / 2.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Goal distribution model
Manchester City × Ipswich Town
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.1%
0:1
2.7%
0:2
0.8%
0:3
0.2%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
8.3%
1:1
5.4%
1:2
2.3%
1:3
0.6%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
10.9%
2:1
8.4%
2:2
3.3%
2:3
0.8%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
10.3%
3:1
8.0%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
7.3%
4:1
5.6%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
4.1%
5:1
3.2%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.9%
3:010.3%
2:18.4%
1:08.3%
3:18.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Manchester City
1st place · 15 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Sunderland 5:3
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Coventry 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
Ipswich Town
11th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Everton 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Crystal Palace 3:2
- 04.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:2
- 30.08.2026 away Man United 2:5
- 22.08.2026 home Sunderland 2:1
This season: Manchester City at home vs Ipswich Town away
| Metric | Manchester City · at home | Ipswich Town · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.43 | 1.71 |
| xG against per match | 1.86 | 2.47 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Manchester City wins2
Draws0
Ipswich Town wins0
Goals per match5.50
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals2/2
- 19.01.2025 Ipswich Town 0:6 Manchester City
- 24.08.2024 Manchester City 4:1 Ipswich Town
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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