Aberdeen FC — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
52.2%
Home win
Aberdeen FC
X
24.6%
Draw
W2
23.2%
Away win
St Mirren FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X76.8%
Both teams to score
Yes57.6%
Totals 2.5
Over56.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.8% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.1% / 65.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
Goal distribution model
Aberdeen FC × St Mirren FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.0%
0:1
5.2%
0:2
3.4%
0:3
1.3%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
8.7%
1:1
11.6%
1:2
6.2%
1:3
2.3%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.6%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.2%
3:1
5.9%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.3%
4:1
2.7%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.6%
2:19.8%
1:08.7%
2:08.6%
1:26.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Aberdeen FC
7th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Hibernian 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Motherwell 4:0
- 05.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Celtic 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Rangers 0:1
St Mirren FC
4th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Dundee United 0:3
- 09.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Celtic 1:2
- 02.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Motherwell 3:3
This season: Aberdeen FC at home vs St Mirren FC away
| Metric | Aberdeen FC · at home | St Mirren FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 0.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 1.53 | 1.09 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Aberdeen FC wins1
Draws1
St Mirren FC wins4
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 12.05.2026 Aberdeen FC 0:2 St Mirren FC
- 04.04.2026 St Mirren FC 2:0 Aberdeen FC
- 03.12.2025 Aberdeen FC 3:3 St Mirren FC
- 18.10.2025 St Mirren FC 0:1 Aberdeen FC
- 03.05.2025 St Mirren FC 1:0 Aberdeen FC
- 25.01.2025 Aberdeen FC 0:3 St Mirren FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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