Aberdeen FC — St. Johnstone FC: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.0% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Aberdeen FC
7th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Hibernian 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Motherwell 4:0
- 05.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Celtic 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Rangers 0:1
St. Johnstone FC
6th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1
- 09.09.2026 home Celtic 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Hibernian 2:1
- 02.09.2026 away Dundee 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Hearts 1:2
This season: Aberdeen FC at home vs St. Johnstone FC away
| Metric | Aberdeen FC · at home | St. Johnstone FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.32 | 1.12 |
| xG against per match | 1.53 | 1.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2025 St. Johnstone FC 0:0 Aberdeen FC
- 07.12.2024 Aberdeen FC 1:1 St. Johnstone FC
- 05.08.2024 St. Johnstone FC 1:2 Aberdeen FC
- 04.05.2024 Aberdeen FC 1:0 St. Johnstone FC
- 28.02.2024 Aberdeen FC 0:2 St. Johnstone FC
- 24.01.2024 St. Johnstone FC 1:1 Aberdeen FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aberdeen FC have a slight edge over St. Johnstone FC in this Premiership matchup, although the assessment comes with moderate confidence. The available signals point toward a competitive contest rather than a strongly one-sided game, with Aberdeen FC holding the more favorable overall position. The suggested market signal also leans toward avoiding an away defeat.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while the expectation for both teams to score is balanced rather than clearly tilted either way. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:0, and 2:1, which reflects the relatively narrow gap between the sides. Overall, Aberdeen FC appear marginally better placed, but St. Johnstone FC remain capable of keeping the match close, making a controlled and competitive encounter the most consistent reading of the available data.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.