Falkirk FC — Dundee FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.2% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.8% / 22.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.5% / 68.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Falkirk FC
11th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Hearts 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Dundee United 1:1
- 02.09.2026 home Rangers 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Celtic 1:2
Dundee FC
5th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Motherwell 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Hearts 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home St Johnstone 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Hibernian 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Dundee United 2:0
This season: Falkirk FC at home vs Dundee FC away
| Metric | Falkirk FC · at home | Dundee FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.20 | 0.89 |
| xG against per match | 1.65 | 1.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 11.02.2026 Falkirk FC 1:0 Dundee FC
- 27.12.2025 Dundee FC 1:0 Falkirk FC
- 25.10.2025 Falkirk FC 2:1 Dundee FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Falkirk FC host Dundee FC in the Premiership with the table pointing clearly in the visitors' favour. Dundee FC sit fifth of twelve with 10 points from 7 matches, while Falkirk FC occupy eleventh, having gathered just 7 points from 8 games. On paper that gap suggests the away side should set the tone, yet the picture is more layered once recent form and the head-to-head are weighed in.
The direct history leans the other way. In three previous meetings Falkirk FC have taken two wins to Dundee FC's one, and the last encounter finished 1-0 to the hosts. Recent form offers little separation either: Falkirk FC come in on D W D L L with 6 scored and 7 conceded in five matches, while Dundee FC's W L D L W return of 7 scored and 6 conceded is similarly uneven. Both sides have also struggled on their respective home and away travels, each winning once in limited outings.
Taken together, the signals point to a tight, moderately open contest where Falkirk FC retain a slight edge through familiarity and the recent head-to-head, even if the league standings favour Dundee FC. A close, competitive afternoon looks the most reasonable expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Falkirk return to competitive action
Falkirk return to Scottish Premiership action following a three-week competitive fixture break, hosting Dundee at The Falkirk Stadium.
Recent head-to-head record at Falkirk Stadium
Falkirk have won their last two league meetings hosting Dundee at The Falkirk Stadium.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.