Hibernian FC — Falkirk FC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
59.2%
Home win
Hibernian FC
X
22.6%
Draw
W2
18.2%
Away win
Falkirk FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X81.8%
Both teams to score
Yes56.0%
Totals 2.5
Over58.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.8% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.0% / 19.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.7% / 64.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Goal distribution model
Hibernian FC × Falkirk FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.5%
0:1
4.4%
0:2
2.6%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.1%
1:1
10.6%
1:2
5.1%
1:3
1.7%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.7%
2:1
10.0%
2:2
5.1%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.5%
3:1
6.6%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.2%
4:1
3.3%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.3%
5:1
1.3%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.6%
2:110.0%
2:09.7%
1:09.1%
3:16.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Hibernian FC
10th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Aberdeen 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:1
- 06.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:2
- 03.09.2026 home Hearts 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Dundee 2:1
Falkirk FC
11th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Hearts 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Dundee United 1:1
- 02.09.2026 home Rangers 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Celtic 1:2
This season: Hibernian FC at home vs Falkirk FC away
| Metric | Hibernian FC · at home | Falkirk FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–3 | 0–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.59 | 0.68 |
| xG against per match | 1.38 | 1.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.75 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 9.25 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Hibernian FC wins2
Draws1
Falkirk FC wins1
Goals per match4.00
Both teams scored3/4
Over 2.5 goals4/4
- 09.05.2026 Falkirk FC 1:3 Hibernian FC
- 24.01.2026 Falkirk FC 4:1 Hibernian FC
- 06.12.2025 Hibernian FC 3:0 Falkirk FC
- 23.09.2025 Falkirk FC 2:2 Hibernian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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