Celtic Glasgow — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
61.3%
Home win
Celtic Glasgow
X
21.2%
Draw
W2
17.5%
Away win
Heart of Midlothian FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.5%
Both teams to score
Yes61.6%
Totals 2.5
Over65.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.5% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Goal distribution model
Celtic Glasgow × Heart of Midlothian FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.2%
0:1
3.1%
0:2
2.2%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.8%
1:1
9.5%
1:2
5.0%
1:3
1.9%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.5%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.4%
3:1
7.3%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.6%
4:1
4.1%
4:2
2.3%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.6%
5:1
1.8%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.7%
1:19.5%
2:08.5%
3:17.3%
1:06.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Celtic Glasgow
1st place · 19 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Rangers 0:1
- 09.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away St Mirren 2:1
- 02.09.2026 home Aberdeen 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Falkirk 2:1
Heart of Midlothian FC
3rd place · 14 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Dundee 2:1
- 03.09.2026 away Hibernian 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home St Johnstone 2:1
This season: Celtic Glasgow at home vs Heart of Midlothian FC away
| Metric | Celtic Glasgow · at home | Heart of Midlothian FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–1 | 1–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| xG for per match | 2.15 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 0.73 | 1.66 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.25 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.50 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Celtic Glasgow wins3
Draws1
Heart of Midlothian FC wins2
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 16.05.2026 Celtic Glasgow 3:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 25.01.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 2:2 Celtic Glasgow
- 07.12.2025 Celtic Glasgow 1:2 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 26.10.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 3:1 Celtic Glasgow
- 29.03.2025 Celtic Glasgow 3:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 23.11.2024 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:4 Celtic Glasgow
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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