Kilmarnock FC — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.1%
Home win
Kilmarnock FC
X
24.1%
Draw
W2
47.8%
Away win
Motherwell FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.9%
Both teams to score
Yes64.0%
Totals 2.5
Over62.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.2% |
| 12 | 75.9% | |
| X2 | 71.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Goal distribution model
Kilmarnock FC × Motherwell FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.7%
0:1
6.5%
0:2
6.7%
0:3
4.2%
0:4
1.9%
0:5
0.7%
1
1:0
4.7%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
5.8%
1:4
2.7%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.8%
2:1
7.0%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
4.0%
2:4
1.9%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
1.7%
3:1
3.2%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
1:29.3%
2:17.0%
0:26.7%
0:16.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Kilmarnock FC
12th place · 6 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Hearts 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Hibernian 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away Aberdeen 0:0
- 02.09.2026 home St Mirren 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Dundee United 0:4
Motherwell FC
8th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Dundee 1:2
- 15.09.2026 home Aberdeen 0:4
- 05.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
- 02.09.2026 home Dundee United 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away St Mirren 3:3
This season: Kilmarnock FC at home vs Motherwell FC away
| Metric | Kilmarnock FC · at home | Motherwell FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.75 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 0.64 | 1.43 |
| xG against per match | 3.01 | 2.38 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 4.75 |
| Corners per match | 4.25 | 5.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Kilmarnock FC wins1
Draws2
Motherwell FC wins3
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 24.01.2026 Motherwell FC 4:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 22.11.2025 Kilmarnock FC 1:3 Motherwell FC
- 30.08.2025 Motherwell FC 2:2 Kilmarnock FC
- 14.05.2025 Motherwell FC 3:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 05.04.2025 Kilmarnock FC 2:0 Motherwell FC
- 08.01.2025 Kilmarnock FC 0:0 Motherwell FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.