St. Johnstone FC — Dundee United: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
39.5%
Home win
St. Johnstone FC
X
26.1%
Draw
W2
34.4%
Away win
Dundee United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.9%
Both teams to score
Yes60.1%
Totals 2.5
Over56.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.6% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.1% / 65.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
Goal distribution model
St. Johnstone FC × Dundee United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.0%
0:1
6.7%
0:2
5.3%
0:3
2.5%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.3%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
8.1%
1:3
3.8%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.2%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
6.2%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.1%
3:1
4.4%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
1.7%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
2:18.7%
1:28.1%
1:07.3%
0:16.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
St. Johnstone FC
6th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1
- 09.09.2026 home Celtic 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Hibernian 2:1
- 02.09.2026 away Dundee 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Hearts 1:2
Dundee United
9th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away St Mirren 3:0
- 05.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1
- 02.09.2026 away Motherwell 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Kilmarnock 4:0
- 22.08.2026 home Dundee 0:2
This season: St. Johnstone FC at home vs Dundee United away
| Metric | St. Johnstone FC · at home | Dundee United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–1 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.43 | 1.44 |
| xG against per match | 1.41 | 1.53 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.25 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.25 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
St. Johnstone FC wins2
Draws0
Dundee United wins4
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 12.04.2025 Dundee United 1:0 St. Johnstone FC
- 26.12.2024 St. Johnstone FC 1:2 Dundee United
- 24.08.2024 Dundee United 2:0 St. Johnstone FC
- 06.05.2023 St. Johnstone FC 1:0 Dundee United
- 18.02.2023 Dundee United 1:2 St. Johnstone FC
- 02.01.2023 St. Johnstone FC 0:1 Dundee United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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