Match intelligence

Dundee United — Hibernian FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026

League: Premiership (Scotland) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
Dundee United1
:
0Hibernian FC
Locked signal BTTS Probability 65.0% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 36.4% Home win Dundee United
X 25.8% Draw
W2 37.9% Away win Hibernian FC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1274.2%
Both teams to score
Yes65.0%
Totals 2.5
Over62.1%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X62.1%
1274.2%
X263.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No65.0% / 35.0%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.8% / 5.2%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 84.1% / 15.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 62.1% / 37.9%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 39.9% / 60.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 22.1% / 77.9%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 10.6% / 89.4%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Dundee United × Hibernian FC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.2%
0:1 5.4%
0:2 5.3%
0:3 2.9%
0:4 1.2%
0:5 0.4%
1
1:0 5.2%
1:1 11.6%
1:2 8.4%
1:3 4.6%
1:4 1.8%
1:5 0.6%
2
2:0 5.1%
2:1 8.2%
2:2 6.7%
2:3 3.6%
2:4 1.5%
2:5 0.5%
3
3:0 2.7%
3:1 4.4%
3:2 3.5%
3:3 1.9%
3:4 0.8%
3:5 0.3%
4
4:0 1.1%
4:1 1.7%
4:2 1.4%
4:3 0.8%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.3%
5:1 0.5%
5:2 0.4%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.6%
1:28.4%
2:18.3%
2:26.7%
0:15.4%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026

Dundee United

9th place · 8 pts after 7

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 19.09.2026 away St Mirren 3:0
  • 05.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1
  • 02.09.2026 away Motherwell 0:3
  • 29.08.2026 away Kilmarnock 4:0
  • 22.08.2026 home Dundee 0:2

Hibernian FC

10th place · 8 pts after 8

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 19.09.2026 home Aberdeen 1:1
  • 15.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:1
  • 06.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:2
  • 03.09.2026 home Hearts 1:3
  • 30.08.2026 away Dundee 2:1

This season: Dundee United at home vs Hibernian FC away

Metric Dundee United · at home Hibernian FC · away
Matches33
W–D–L0–2–12–0–1
Goals scored per match0.671.67
Goals conceded per match1.331.33
xG for per match1.721.96
xG against per match1.331.77
Shots on target per match5.674.00
Corners per match8.335.33
Over 2.5 goals0%100%
Both teams scored67%100%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Dundee United wins0
Draws3
Hibernian FC wins3
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored6/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 04.02.2026 Hibernian FC 3:2 Dundee United
  • 20.12.2025 Dundee United 1:1 Hibernian FC
  • 13.09.2025 Hibernian FC 3:3 Dundee United
  • 03.05.2025 Hibernian FC 3:1 Dundee United
  • 26.02.2025 Dundee United 1:3 Hibernian FC
  • 03.11.2024 Hibernian FC 1:1 Dundee United

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · Claude Opus 4.7

Dundee United host Hibernian FC in a Premiership fixture where the table offers little separation between the two sides. The hosts sit ninth with eight points from seven games, while Hibernian FC are directly below them in tenth on the same points tally from one additional match. What stands out, though, is the contrast in form by venue: Dundee United have yet to win at home this season, drawing two and losing one of their three fixtures, whereas Hibernian FC have taken two wins from their three away trips. On that basis, the teams look evenly matched, with a slight lean towards the visitors.

The head-to-head record reinforces that lean. Across the last six meetings, Dundee United have not beaten Hibernian FC once, with three draws and three away wins, and the most recent encounter ended 3-2 in Hibernian FC's favour. Goals have been a consistent feature too, with both teams scoring in every one of those six matches.

Taken together, the pattern points to an open contest where both sides can find the net. Dundee United's struggles at home against a visitor that travels well suggest the draw or an away result remains the more defensible reading, though confidence here is only moderate.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Team news

Marink Reedijk to make Hibernian managerial debut

Newly appointed Hibernian manager Marink Reedijk is set to take charge of his first official match for the club in this Premiership fixture against Dundee United.

Match fact

Dundee United seeking first home league win of the season

Dundee United enter the fixture against Hibernian still searching for their first home league victory of the Premiership campaign.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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