Heart of Midlothian FC — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.8% |
| 12 | 82.3% | |
| X2 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.8% / 56.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Heart of Midlothian FC
3rd place · 14 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Dundee 2:1
- 03.09.2026 away Hibernian 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home St Johnstone 2:1
St Mirren FC
4th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Dundee United 0:3
- 09.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Celtic 1:2
- 02.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Motherwell 3:3
This season: Heart of Midlothian FC at home vs St Mirren FC away
| Metric | Heart of Midlothian FC · at home | St Mirren FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 0.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.89 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 0.74 | 1.09 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| Corners per match | 9.67 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.02.2026 St Mirren FC 1:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 14.01.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 2:0 St Mirren FC
- 29.10.2025 St Mirren FC 2:2 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 26.02.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 3:1 St Mirren FC
- 19.10.2024 Heart of Midlothian FC 4:0 St Mirren FC
- 21.09.2024 St Mirren FC 2:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Heart of Midlothian FC welcome St Mirren FC to Tynecastle sitting third in the Premiership on 14 points from eight matches, one place and three points above their visitors. The most striking contrast lies in recent form: the hosts arrive on the back of three straight league wins, while St Mirren FC have lost three of their last five. Home comforts tilt the picture further, as Heart of Midlothian FC have won all three of their matches at Tynecastle this season, scoring eight and conceding only twice.
St Mirren FC, however, travel better than their overall form suggests. They have taken seven points from four away fixtures, conceding just once on the road, which hints at a disciplined approach away from home. The head-to-head record over six meetings also offers them some comfort: St Mirren FC have won two to the hosts' three, and the most recent encounter in 2026 ended 1-0 in the visitors' favour.
Weighing the home dominance at Tynecastle against the visitors' tight away defence and their last meeting, Heart of Midlothian FC look the stronger side here, though the edge is moderate rather than decisive. A tight, goal-involved contest with the hosts shading proceedings feels the most coherent reading.
What matters before kick-off
Premiership action returns after international break
Heart of Midlothian host St Mirren at Tynecastle Park on 10 October 2026 in Matchday 8 of the Scottish Premiership.
League standings ahead of the match
Going into the fixture, Hearts sit third in the Premiership with 13 points from seven matches, while St Mirren are fifth with 10 points.
Away ticket allocation sold out
St Mirren confirmed that their entire ticket allocation for away supporters in the Roseburn Stand at Tynecastle is completely sold out.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.