Zira FK — Paide Linnameeskond: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.5% |
| 12 | 86.3% | |
| X2 | 19.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Zira FK enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. The hosts are expected to control more of the match, with their advantage likely to be reflected in possession, territory and the number of meaningful attacking situations they create. Paide Linnameeskond face a demanding task and may need to remain compact, limit space around their penalty area and rely on disciplined defensive work.
The scoring outlook is medium, but the clearest signal points towards Zira FK keeping a clean sheet. That suggests Paide Linnameeskond could find it difficult to turn their opportunities into goals, particularly if Zira FK establish control early. The most plausible score patterns are narrow or moderately comfortable home victories, with results such as 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 fitting the overall assessment. Zira FK should therefore be considered the stronger team, while Paide Linnameeskond will need an especially well-organised performance to keep the tie balanced.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.