FC Inter Turku — Istanbul Basaksehir: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.4% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 82.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 4.33 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
FC Inter Turku host Istanbul Basaksehir in the UEFA Conference League qualification round, with the available assessment giving the visitors a slight edge. That advantage is limited rather than decisive, as the confidence level is low and the match profile points towards a competitive contest.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered an even possibility. The main projected outcomes range from a 1-1 draw to narrow Istanbul Basaksehir victories, including 0-1 and 0-2. FC Inter Turku should therefore remain in contention, while Istanbul Basaksehir appear marginally better placed to control the tie if they perform close to their expected level.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.