FC Pyunik Yerevan — Debreceni VSC: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.9% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Pyunik Yerevan face Debreceni VSC in the UEFA Conference League qualifying round, with the home side holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The confidence behind that view is moderate, so the matchup should be approached as competitive rather than one-sided. Pyunik’s home advantage gives them a marginally stronger position, but Debreceni have a credible route to staying in the contest.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with the available scorelines pointing toward a close encounter. A draw is a realistic possibility, while narrow outcomes such as a Pyunik win by one goal also fit the assessment. The expectation that both teams will score is balanced, making that aspect difficult to separate between the sides. Overall, the analysis leans toward FC Pyunik Yerevan avoiding defeat, while Debreceni VSC remain capable of making the match tight and influencing the result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.