FC Noah Yerevan — FC Zimbru Chisinau: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.8% |
| 12 | 83.5% | |
| X2 | 22.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.2% / 60.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Noah Yerevan go into this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high-confidence assessment favouring the hosts against FC Zimbru Chisinau. The expected pattern is one in which Noah control more of the match and create the clearer opportunities, while Zimbru may have to remain compact and limit space in their own half.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring game, with a clean sheet for one side considered likely. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, all of which reflect an advantage for FC Noah Yerevan without suggesting an especially open contest. FC Zimbru Chisinau will need an efficient defensive performance to keep the tie close, particularly if Noah establish territorial control early. Overall, the available indicators point to a home win as the leading outcome, with the visitors facing a difficult task in finding a goal.
What matters before kick-off
Conference League qualification second leg
Armenian side FC Noah face Moldovan club FC Zimbru Chisinau in the second leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round for the 2026/27 season.
Draw in the first leg
The first leg between the two sides, played on July 23, 2026 at Zimbru, ended in a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.