FC Noah Yerevan — FC Zimbru Chisinau: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.9% |
| 12 | 82.2% | |
| X2 | 25.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.4% / 83.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Noah Yerevan go into this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high-confidence assessment favouring the hosts against FC Zimbru Chisinau. The expected pattern is one in which Noah control more of the match and create the clearer opportunities, while Zimbru may have to remain compact and limit space in their own half.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring game, with a clean sheet for one side considered likely. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, all of which reflect an advantage for FC Noah Yerevan without suggesting an especially open contest. FC Zimbru Chisinau will need an efficient defensive performance to keep the tie close, particularly if Noah establish territorial control early. Overall, the available indicators point to a home win as the leading outcome, with the visitors facing a difficult task in finding a goal.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.