Tampereen Ilves — Stjarnan Gardabae: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.1% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.9% / 59.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Tampereen Ilves hold a slight edge over Stjarnan Gardabae in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the moderate confidence points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The available assessment leans toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided encounter, with Tampereen Ilves having the stronger overall position at home.
The expected pattern is open and potentially high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the game difficult to frame as a straightforward defensive battle, and Stjarnan Gardabae should have opportunities to contribute to the scoreline even if Tampereen Ilves remain the marginally preferred side. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a range from a balanced draw to a narrow home victory. Overall, Tampereen Ilves have the slight advantage, but the match appears likely to remain competitive through the final stages.
What matters before kick-off
First leg qualification result
Icelandic side Stjarnan secured a 1-0 win against Finnish club Ilves in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League second qualifying round tie.
Qualification scenario for second leg
The second leg takes place at Tammela Stadium in Tampere, where Ilves need at least a one-goal victory to force extra time against Stjarnan.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.