Tampereen Ilves — Stjarnan Gardabae: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.3% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Tampereen Ilves have a slight but high-confidence edge over Stjarnan Gardabae in this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie. The assessment points towards a competitive match in which the Finnish side is better placed, although the gap between the teams does not appear wide enough to rule out a draw. That makes home protection important for Ilves, while Stjarnan Gardabae remain capable of staying involved throughout the game.
The scoring outlook is notably open, with both teams likely to find the net. Rather than a cautious encounter, the balance of signals suggests a match with several attacking moments and opportunities at both ends. Ilves have the stronger overall position, but Stjarnan Gardabae could make the contest uncomfortable if they convert their chances. A narrow home victory is the clearest outcome indicated, while a draw remains a realistic alternative in what should be a lively qualification match.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.