Nomme Kalju FC — Shelbourne FC: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.0% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nomme Kalju FC host Shelbourne FC in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie that appears finely balanced, with a moderate lean toward the visitors. Shelbourne FC have a slight edge in the overall outlook, while the home side should remain competitive, particularly with the advantage of playing in familiar surroundings. The balance of the assessment also points toward a match in which both teams have a realistic chance of finding the net.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring rather than dominated by either attack. Nomme Kalju FC are likely to focus on staying organised and making the most of their opportunities, while Shelbourne FC may look to apply measured pressure and exploit openings when they arise. A draw would be a credible outcome, but the visitors have the stronger position in the analysis, making a result that protects against a Shelbourne FC victory the more cautious reading.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.