Nomme Kalju FC — Shelbourne FC: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.9% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 69.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.9% / 39.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nomme Kalju FC host Shelbourne FC in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie that appears finely balanced, with a moderate lean toward the visitors. Shelbourne FC have a slight edge in the overall outlook, while the home side should remain competitive, particularly with the advantage of playing in familiar surroundings. The balance of the assessment also points toward a match in which both teams have a realistic chance of finding the net.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring rather than dominated by either attack. Nomme Kalju FC are likely to focus on staying organised and making the most of their opportunities, while Shelbourne FC may look to apply measured pressure and exploit openings when they arise. A draw would be a credible outcome, but the visitors have the stronger position in the analysis, making a result that protects against a Shelbourne FC victory the more cautious reading.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
The first leg of the UEFA Conference League qualifier took place on July 23, 2026, in Dublin, ending in a 5-2 win for Shelbourne over Nõmme Kalju.
Second-leg venue
Nõmme Kalju play their home fixture against Shelbourne at the Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.