FK Jablonec — NK Varazdin: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.8% / 22.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Jablonec have a slight edge over NK Varazdin in this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie, although the moderate confidence suggests a closely contested match rather than a one-sided affair. Jablonec may be able to use home advantage to take initiative, but Varazdin should have enough attacking threat to remain involved throughout the game.
The overall outlook points toward chances at both ends, with both teams likely to score. That could produce an open contest, yet the market signal leans toward a more controlled total than the attacking profile might initially suggest. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while a narrow Jablonec victory is also consistent with the assessment. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0, indicating that the hosts have the stronger position but not a decisive one.
What matters before kick-off
First leg result
In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round on July 23, 2026, NK Varazdin earned a 3-2 home victory over FK Jablonec.
Match fitness and schedule
Between European ties, FK Jablonec defeated SK Sigma Olomouc 2-1 in their domestic league on July 26, whereas NK Varazdin had no weekend match as the Croatian league had not yet started.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.