FK Jablonec — NK Varazdin: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 77.2% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Jablonec have a slight edge over NK Varazdin in this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie, although the moderate confidence suggests a closely contested match rather than a one-sided affair. Jablonec may be able to use home advantage to take initiative, but Varazdin should have enough attacking threat to remain involved throughout the game.
The overall outlook points toward chances at both ends, with both teams likely to score. That could produce an open contest, yet the market signal leans toward a more controlled total than the attacking profile might initially suggest. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while a narrow Jablonec victory is also consistent with the assessment. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0, indicating that the hosts have the stronger position but not a decisive one.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.