Wrexham AFC — Watford FC: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.0% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Wrexham AFC
14th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 02.05.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
- 26.04.2026 away Coventry 1:3
- 21.04.2026 away Oxford 1:0
- 18.04.2026 home Stoke 2:0
Watford FC
8th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Southampton 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Coventry 0:4
- 25.04.2026 away Middlesbrough 1:5
- 21.04.2026 away West Brom 0:3
- 18.04.2026 home Sheffield United 0:2
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 17.03.2026 Watford FC 3:1 Wrexham AFC
- 13.12.2025 Wrexham AFC 2:2 Watford FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Wrexham AFC host Watford FC in a Championship meeting that is expected to be relatively balanced, with a slight edge given to Wrexham AFC. The assessment points toward the home side as the stronger option, while the overall market signal supports Wrexham AFC avoiding defeat. That advantage is meaningful, but it does not remove the possibility of a competitive contest.
The match is projected to produce a moderate number of goals rather than an especially open or defensive game. Both teams scoring remains evenly balanced, so there is no clear indication that either side will definitely find the net. The main scoreline possibilities are a 1-1 draw, a narrow 1-0 home win, or a 2-1 victory for Wrexham AFC. Watford FC therefore remain capable of making the game close, particularly if they keep the contest level for long periods, but the overall reading favours the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
Championship opening match results
In the Championship opening weekend, Watford secured a 2-1 home victory over Southampton, while Wrexham drew 1-1 away at Cardiff City.
Team availability ahead of kickoff
Wrexham are sidelined without Josh Windass and Liberato Cacace due to injury, while Watford are missing Jeremy Ngakia and Marc Bola.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.